Sarasota county real estate deep dive: august 24, 2025

Sarasota County Real Estate Deep Dive: August 24, 2025

Sarasota Weekly Market Pulse

Five‑day snapshot • Aug 18–22, 2025

A tight, numbers‑only read from this week’s MLS file. No outside data. Real‑time pricing power, market speed, and pockets to avoid.

Solds

Closed

180

SP/LP: 0.95
$/sf: $242.17
CDOM: 78

Pendings

Under Contract

214

DTC: 86
LP/sf: $250.59
SP/LP: Not in file

Actives

For Sale

277

ADOM: 4
LP/sf: $272.49
SP/LP: Not in file

Expireds

Lapsed

59

ADOM: 177
CDOM: 180
SP/LP: Not in file

Pricing Power — Share of Solds Over/At/Under List

No outside data

Over List3.9%

At List9.4%

Under List86.7%

Median SP/LP across solds: 0.95. Bidding wars were the exception this week.

Two‑Speed

Market Clock (CDOM)

  • 0–7 days: 20 (11.1%)
  • 8–30 days: 28 (15.6%)
  • 31–60 days: 24 (13.3%)
  • 61+ days: 108 (60.0%)

What it means: Quick hits exist, but most sales need a longer runway.

Sector Split

SFR vs Condo

  • SFR — SP/LP 0.96, $/sf $254.85 (n=116)
  • Condo — SP/LP 0.93, $/sf $263.89 (n=35)
  • Townhome — $/sf $218.09 (n=4), Villa — $/sf $214.04 (n=16)

What it means: Condos command higher $/sf, but buyers negotiate harder on them.

Tier Signal

Who Moves Fast?

  • Entry (≤Q1): CDOM 90, Over‑list 8.9%
  • Mid (Q1–Q3): CDOM 88, Over‑list 2.2%
  • Luxury (>Q3): CDOM 66, Over‑list 2.2%

What it means: High‑end buyers are decisive when pricing is tight.

Amenity Effect

Pool Premium

  • Private — $/sf $271.76, SP/LP 0.96 (n=61)
  • Community — $/sf $220.13, SP/LP 0.94 (n=73)
  • None — $/sf $206.61, SP/LP 0.95 (n=46)

What it means: Private pools add clear value; community access helps, but less.

Vintage

Age & $/sf

  • ≤1979: $264.11/sf (n=48)
  • 1980–1999: $241.67/sf (n=60)
  • 2000–2009: $223.39/sf (n=27)
  • 2010–2019: $259.93/sf (n=7)
  • 2020+: $219.86/sf (n=37)

What it means: Older, well‑located homes often outrun newer builds on a $/sf basis.

Financing

Terms & Speed

  • Conventional — SP/LP 0.96, CDOM 68 (n=64)
  • Cash — SP/LP 0.95, CDOM 81 (n=96)
  • FHA — SP/LP 0.975, CDOM 98 (n=10)
  • VA — SP/LP 0.975, CDOM 135 (n=8)

What it means: FHA/VA hold price but need time; Conventional is the speed play.

City Cuts

Performance by City (Solds)

  • SARASOTA — SP/LP 0.95, $/sf $268.45, CDOM 78 (n=84)
  • VENICE — SP/LP 0.95, $/sf $232.56, CDOM 129 (n=44)
  • NORTH PORT — SP/LP 0.96, $/sf $188.61, CDOM 126 (n=32)
  • LONGBOAT KEY — SP/LP 0.90, $/sf $489.72, CDOM 49 (n=6)

What it means: Sarasota leads volume; Longboat’s prestige drives $/sf but needs price precision.

Demand

PND/ACT Ratio

County‑wide PND/ACT: 0.77 (214 pendings / 277 actives).

  • VENICE — 1.08 (55/51)
  • LONGBOAT KEY — 1.00 (4/4)
  • SARASOTA — 0.74 (99/134)
  • ENGLEWOOD — 0.36 (4/11)

What it means: Venice is the demand standout this week.

Risk Map

Expireds “Do‑Not‑Cross”

Highest city expired shares (EXP ÷ total listings in file):

  • OSPREY — 40.0% (2 of 5)
  • LONGBOAT KEY — 17.6% (3 of 17)
  • ENGLEWOOD — 17.4% (4 of 23)
  • VENICE — 11.8% (20 of 170)

Legal subdivisions with multiple expireds:

  • SOUTH VENICE (3)
  • WINDWARD AT LAKEWOOD RANCH (2)
  • ISLANDWALK/THE WEST VLGS PH 7 (2)
  • GRAN PARADISO PH 1 (2)

What it means: Price precisely in these pockets or expect a relist.

Contrarian

Myth‑Buster

Condos out‑price SFRs by $9.04/sf on median ($263.89 vs $254.85) even as condos carry a softer SP/LP (0.93 vs 0.96).

What it means: Sellers: lead with amenity/location value. Buyers: expect negotiating room.

Data

Notes

  • Two solds show negative Days‑to‑Contract; CDOM used for speed metrics.
  • SP/LP and $/sf figures are medians from this file only.
  • Where a stat isn’t in the file (e.g., SP/LP for actives/pendings), we state “Not in file”.

This Week’s Playbook

  • Price to win: with 86.7% of sales under list, anchor at the comp, not above it.
  • Lean into pools: private pools earned the highest $/sf—stage and headline them.
  • Time your terms: Conventional moves fastest; pad timelines for FHA/VA.
  • Target hot zones: Venice PND/ACT 1.08—optimize there; sharpen Sarasota and Englewood.
  • Watch expired pockets: Osprey, Longboat Key, and the listed subdivisions need precision or incentives.

All figures are from the uploaded MLS CSV for Aug 18–22, 2025. No external data used.

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