Manatee County Real Esate Deep Dive: August 24, 2025
Manatee Weekly Deep Dive
Closings Aug 18–22, 2025 • Pendings/Actives from same MLS export
Closings Aug 18–22, 2025 • Pendings/Actives from same MLS export
Local Knowledge Broker Report
We surface the moves other analysts miss—so you can price, position, and negotiate with confidence.
Solds
148
SP/LP 98% • $/sf $215 • CDOM 53
Pendings
188
Days to Contract 72 • List $/sf $230
Actives
177
Median List $449,000 • $/sf $235 • ADOM 3
Expireds
25
ADOM 179 • $/sf $259
Contrarian
It’s an “At‑List,” not “Over‑Ask,” market
It’s an “At‑List,” not “Over‑Ask,” market
Only 2.0% beat list • 28.4% sold at list • 69.6% sold below.
Over • At • Under
Parrish is the outlier—50% at‑list; Bradenton just 12.9% at‑list.
Two‑Speed
“Now vs Later” Market
“Now vs Later” Market
16.2% sold in ≤7 days • 32.4% needed 90+ days.
“Goldilocks” size ~1,527–1,832 sf sold in ~26 days at ~0.99 SP/LP.
Sector Split
Condos drag; Townhomes sprint
Condos drag; Townhomes sprint
Condos: ~0.915 SP/LP, ~130 CDOM (slowest).
Townhomes: ~25 days, ~0.99 SP/LP.
Single‑family: ~53 CDOM, ~0.98 SP/LP.
Townhomes: ~25 days, ~0.99 SP/LP.
Single‑family: ~53 CDOM, ~0.98 SP/LP.
City Micro‑Moves
- Palmetto (solds): fastest ~19 days, ~0.99 SP/LP.
- Parrish (solds): 50% at‑list • ~0.995 SP/LP.
- Bradenton (solds): ~0.96 SP/LP → expect negotiation.
Lakewood Ranch Paradox
Demand strong (PND/ACT 2.2) but median DTC ~115.
Split personality: ~23% under 2 weeks; ~50% 120+ days.
Split personality: ~23% under 2 weeks; ~50% 120+ days.
Expireds = Do‑Not‑Cross Map
25 expireds at $259/sf, ADOM 179.
These mark the price/condition lines the market rejected.
These mark the price/condition lines the market rejected.
Price Tiers
Luxury brakes vs entry resilience
Luxury brakes vs entry resilience
- ≤$426k: Ask is above last week’s sold by $25–$28/sf.
- ≥$630k: Active asks are below last sold by ~$22/sf (pre‑cut luxury).
- Top tier solds: CDOM ~103, SP/LP ~0.955.
Pools
Premium & penalty
Premium & penalty
- Private pool: high $/sf (~$342) but slow (~92 days) and discounted (SP/LP ~0.95).
- No pool: fast (~20 days), tight (SP/LP ~0.995).
- Community pool: middle of the pack.
Financing
Myth‑buster
Myth‑buster
- Cash share: ~37% of closings.
- FHA: ~0.995 SP/LP • VA: ~1.00 → outperformed Cash (~0.97).
Local Knowledge Broker Playbook
- Sellers (Luxury): Price to today’s comps; buyers are already anchored lower (active ask < last sold).
- Sellers (Entry/Mid): Expect list‑to‑sell compression; win with condition and timing to hit the “at‑list” pocket.
- Condo Sellers: Lead with price realism + carrying‑cost story to overcome ~130‑day hesitation.
- Buyers: Don’t auto‑prefer cash—FHA/VA bids are winning on price capture this week.
- Lakewood Ranch: Micro‑target by plan/finish/size; it’s either sprint or marathon—rarely average.
Scope: Weekly MLS export; same dataset for closings, pendings, actives, expireds.
