GULF COAST decodedNo spin. Just the read.
The Buyer Leverage Score · Reading Nº 1 · June 2026
Buying or selling? Know who holds the power before you negotiate.
Every month we measure the balance of negotiating power between buyers and sellers in 14 Sarasota & Manatee communities — computed from live MLS data, explained in plain English. This is the work a strong agent does before the conversation.
Published July 2026 · computed from 7,605 active listings and 5,706 recent sales · Stellar MLS via Bridge Interactive
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Find your communityFourteen communities, one page, sorted by buyer leverage.
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See who has the edgeA plain verdict and a power bar — no jargon to decode.
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Get your playOne strategy line if you’re buying. One if you’re selling.
This Week · updated every MondayThe Coast Tape · the 7 days ending July 19, 2026 · Edition Nº 3 · next tape Monday, July 27
Homes for sale
7,526
▼ -161 vs last week
Sold this past week
382
▼ -196 vs last week
Sellers who have cut price
53.8%
4,046 of 7,526 listings
New listings this week
395
▲ +18 vs last week
Went under contract
388
▲ +18 vs last week
Back on market
—
coming soon
Most sellers cutting: Osprey 64% · Holmes Beach 64% · Palmetto 58%
Firmest market: Siesta Key — only 47% of sellers have cut
The read: The coast’s inventory continues to ease, dropping to 7,526 homes for sale — a third straight weekly pullback and down 2% from last edition. Sales closed this past week look sharply lower at 382 (from 578), but that’s the June closing surge finally fading, not a new slowdown: price cuts held essentially flat at 53.8%, and both new listings (395, up from 377) and signed contracts (388, up from 370) actually improved versus last edition. Osprey and Holmes Beach remain the coast’s toughest sells, each with about two-thirds of active listings marked down, while Siesta Key is holding firmest at just 47% cut-share. Back on market stays dark this edition while we rebuild the weekly tracking archive; the tile lights up once we’ve banked a clean week-over-week comparison.
The Official Monthly Reading · Reading Nº 1 · June 2026Everything below updates monthly · next reading Monday, August 3
The coast at a glance · June 2026
The islands belong to buyers. The mainland is even.
Every dot is a community — the farther right, the more power buyers hold there. Four communities give buyers a clear edge, eight are an even match, and Lakewood Ranch is the firmest market on the coast. One caution if you’re buying: June’s sales pace ran ahead of seasonal norms in most communities. The leverage is real — but it isn’t growing.
Scale shown 40–85 of 0–100 — every monthly-scored community falls inside that range this month. Bradenton Beach reads 92 on a 90-day small-market window, beyond this scale. See its card ↓
Your community
The verdict, community by community
Who has the edge, and what to do about it — whether you’re making the offer or fielding it. Open “the math” on any card to see exactly what drives the reading. Sorted by buyer leverage, most to least.
Bradenton BeachBuyers have the edge
Sellers hold the powerBuyers hold the power
Buying? The deepest paper leverage on the coast — 21 months of supply and over half of sellers already cutting. But eleven sales in 90 days is a thin market: negotiate the specific property, not the average.
Selling? You’re one of 77 listings competing for roughly four buyers a month. Price below the last comparable cut and be the obvious choice.
…and leaning further toward buyers
See the math behind this reading
- 21.0 months of homes for sale at the current 90-day buying pace (about 6 is even)
- 55.8% of active listings have already cut their asking price
- Homes closed at 87.8% of the seller’s original ask (12-month average)
- Median sale took 119 days over the last 90 days vs 43 in the 90 days before
- Closings over the last 90 days ran 79% of this community’s seasonal norm
Reading: 92 of 100 · scored on a 90-day window (small-market rule) · sample: 77 listings, 11 sales (90d) Low confidence
Holmes BeachBuyers have the edge
Sellers hold the powerBuyers hold the power
Buying? The strongest buyer position on the coast — 65% of sellers have already cut at least once. Negotiate price and terms.
Selling? You’re competing with 134 other listings and most have blinked. Price below the last cut, not above it.
…and leaning further toward buyers
See the math behind this reading
- 7.5 months of homes for sale at June’s buying pace (about 6 is even)
- 65.2% of active listings have already cut their asking price
- Homes closed at 88.0% of the seller’s original ask (12-month average)
- Median June sale took 86 days vs 60 in April
- June closings ran 90% of this community’s seasonal June norm
Reading: 79 of 100 · sample: 135 listings, 54 sales (90d) High confidence
Siesta KeyBuyers have the edge
Sellers hold the powerBuyers hold the power
Buying? Deep leverage, especially on condos sitting past 60 days. The median sale closed 13.8% under original ask — anchor accordingly.
Selling? The data says overpricing is expensive here. Price to the last three closed sales, not to hope.
…and leaning further toward buyers
See the math behind this reading
- 7.6 months of homes for sale at June’s buying pace (about 6 is even)
- 50.0% of active listings have already cut their asking price
- Homes closed at 86.2% of the seller’s original ask (12-month average)
- Median June sale took 79 days vs 67 in April
- June closings ran 101% of this community’s seasonal June norm
Reading: 73 of 100 · sample: 316 listings, 125 sales (90d) High confidence
Lido KeyBuyers have the edge
Sellers hold the powerBuyers hold the power
Buying? Big leverage on paper — but June sped up. Use the deep inventory while it’s still deep.
Selling? More than half the actives have already cut. If you’re selling now, precision pricing is everything.
…but June’s pace favored sellers — the window may be narrowing
See the math behind this reading
- 9.1 months of homes for sale at June’s buying pace (about 6 is even)
- 53.9% of active listings have already cut their asking price
- Homes closed at 86.8% of the seller’s original ask (12-month average)
- Median June sale took 73 days vs 64 in April
- June closings ran 134% of this community’s seasonal June norm
Reading: 72 of 100 · sample: 76 listings, 25 sales (90d) Medium confidence
OspreyBuyers have the edge
Sellers hold the powerBuyers hold the power
Buying? Real leverage with little buyer competition — 55% of actives have cut. Small market: negotiate the property, not the average.
Selling? The pace is holding up, but buyers can see the cuts. Come out priced clean on day one.
…and holding steady
See the math behind this reading
- 4.7 months of homes for sale at June’s buying pace (about 6 is even)
- 54.6% of active listings have already cut their asking price
- Homes closed at 88.1% of the seller’s original ask (12-month average)
- Median June sale took 54 days vs 40 in April
- June closings ran 112% of this community’s seasonal June norm
Reading: 64 of 100 · sample: 97 listings, 62 sales (90d) Medium confidence
SarasotaAn even match
Sellers hold the powerBuyers hold the power
Buying? Balanced citywide — but condos (7 months of supply) offer far more room than single family (3.7).
Selling? Single family sellers still hold decent cards — 29-day median sale. Condo sellers: meet the market early.
…but June’s pace favored sellers — the window may be narrowing
See the math behind this reading
- 4.5 months of homes for sale at June’s buying pace (about 6 is even)
- 53.0% of active listings have already cut their asking price
- Homes closed at 89.7% of the seller’s original ask (12-month average)
- Median June sale took 44 days vs 50 in April
- June closings ran 108% of this community’s seasonal June norm
Reading: 57 of 100 · sample: 2192 listings, 1452 sales (90d) High confidence
Longboat KeyAn even match
Sellers hold the powerBuyers hold the power
Buying? The paper leverage is fading — June closings ran 36% above the seasonal norm. If you found the right property, don’t dawdle.
Selling? Better than the headlines: 63 June closings. Priced right, the island is transacting.
…but June’s pace favored sellers — the window may be narrowing
See the math behind this reading
- 5.0 months of homes for sale at June’s buying pace (about 6 is even)
- 55.8% of active listings have already cut their asking price
- Homes closed at 87.3% of the seller’s original ask (12-month average)
- Median June sale took 78 days vs 91 in April
- June closings ran 136% of this community’s seasonal June norm
Reading: 56 of 100 · sample: 276 listings, 166 sales (90d) High confidence
Anna MariaAn even match
Sellers hold the powerBuyers hold the power
Buying? Balanced and thin — 12 June sales. The specific property matters far more than the average here.
Selling? Sales are running ahead of the norm. A sharp price meets real buyers right now.
…but June’s pace favored sellers — the window may be narrowing
See the math behind this reading
- 7.4 months of homes for sale at June’s buying pace (about 6 is even)
- 51.9% of active listings have already cut their asking price
- Homes closed at 89.3% of the seller’s original ask (12-month average)
- Median June sale took 80 days vs 136 in April
- June closings ran 124% of this community’s seasonal June norm
Reading: 55 of 100 · sample: 79 listings, 32 sales (90d) Medium confidence
BradentonAn even match
Sellers hold the powerBuyers hold the power
Buying? An even fight with pockets of leverage in condos, which take three months to sell. Target the stale inventory.
Selling? Single family moves in about a month at 91% of ask. Condos need patience and sharper pricing.
…and holding steady
See the math behind this reading
- 3.7 months of homes for sale at June’s buying pace (about 6 is even)
- 54.9% of active listings have already cut their asking price
- Homes closed at 91.2% of the seller’s original ask (12-month average)
- Median June sale took 43 days vs 46 in April
- June closings ran 103% of this community’s seasonal June norm
Reading: 55 of 100 · sample: 1538 listings, 1236 sales (90d) High confidence
VeniceAn even match
Sellers hold the powerBuyers hold the power
Buying? Nearly even. Your leverage is listing-specific — hunt the half of the market that has already cut.
Selling? Three months of supply keeps you safe if you price with the market instead of ahead of it.
…and holding steady
See the math behind this reading
- 3.1 months of homes for sale at June’s buying pace (about 6 is even)
- 51.7% of active listings have already cut their asking price
- Homes closed at 91.2% of the seller’s original ask (12-month average)
- Median June sale took 50 days vs 49 in April
- June closings ran 107% of this community’s seasonal June norm
Reading: 52 of 100 · sample: 758 listings, 739 sales (90d) High confidence
North PortAn even match
Sellers hold the powerBuyers hold the power
Buying? An even match — and homes sold 16 days faster than in spring. Don’t count on desperation.
Selling? A 34-day median sale in June. Price right and this market still works.
…but June’s pace favored sellers — the window may be narrowing
See the math behind this reading
- 4.1 months of homes for sale at June’s buying pace (about 6 is even)
- 49.8% of active listings have already cut their asking price
- Homes closed at 91.1% of the seller’s original ask (12-month average)
- Median June sale took 34 days vs 50 in April
- June closings ran 95% of this community’s seasonal June norm
Reading: 52 of 100 · sample: 707 listings, 512 sales (90d) High confidence
PalmettoAn even match
Sellers hold the powerBuyers hold the power
Buying? Sixty percent of sellers have cut — the highest share on the coast — yet homes move in 28 days. Negotiate hard on the cut listings.
Selling? This market punishes overpricing instantly. Price under the median cut and sell fast.
…but June’s pace favored sellers — the window may be narrowing
See the math behind this reading
- 3.6 months of homes for sale at June’s buying pace (about 6 is even)
- 60.3% of active listings have already cut their asking price
- Homes closed at 91.6% of the seller’s original ask (12-month average)
- Median June sale took 28 days vs 46 in April
- June closings ran 103% of this community’s seasonal June norm
Reading: 52 of 100 · sample: 395 listings, 329 sales (90d) High confidence
ParrishAn even match
Sellers hold the powerBuyers hold the power
Buying? Dead even. New-construction incentives are your negotiating benchmark on any resale.
Selling? Sellers here close at 94.4% of original ask — the strongest ratio on the coast. Hold reasonable ground.
…but June’s pace favored sellers — the window may be narrowing
See the math behind this reading
- 3.5 months of homes for sale at June’s buying pace (about 6 is even)
- 59.2% of active listings have already cut their asking price
- Homes closed at 94.4% of the seller’s original ask (12-month average)
- Median June sale took 47 days vs 46 in April
- June closings ran 117% of this community’s seasonal June norm
Reading: 50 of 100 · sample: 720 listings, 610 sales (90d) High confidence
Lakewood RanchAn even match
Sellers hold the powerBuyers hold the power
Buying? The firmest market on the board — two months of supply and June sales 35% above norm. Bring a clean, strong offer.
Selling? You hold the best cards on the coast. Negotiate terms, not price.
…but June’s pace favored sellers — the window may be narrowing
See the math behind this reading
- 2.0 months of homes for sale at June’s buying pace (about 6 is even)
- 49.6% of active listings have already cut their asking price
- Homes closed at 92.5% of the seller’s original ask (12-month average)
- Median June sale took 27 days vs 23 in April
- June closings ran 135% of this community’s seasonal June norm
Reading: 43 of 100 · sample: 234 listings, 353 sales (90d) High confidence
MR
Mike’s Read · June 2026Michael Renick · Broker, Team Renick
Mangrove Realty Associates Inc.
Mangrove Realty Associates Inc.
Questions about your building, your street, your situation? Call or text my cell: 941-400-8735. No pressure, no scripts — just a straight answer.
The human read
What the data can’t tell you, I will
The headline this month is the barrier islands. Holmes Beach reads 79 — the most buyer-favorable monthly reading on the coast — with 65% of its sellers already cutting price. Siesta and Lido aren’t far behind, and across the islands homes are closing 12–14% under original ask. If you’ve been waiting for island leverage, it’s here.
The mainland is a different conversation. Lakewood Ranch is the firmest market we measured — two months of supply and June sales running 35% above the seasonal norm. Parrish sellers are closing at 94.4% of original ask, the strongest ratio on the coast. Balanced doesn’t mean soft.
And here’s the part that surprised me: June got faster almost everywhere. Most of our 13 scored communities closed at or above their seasonal pace. Buyers hold real leverage on this coast — but the direction of travel says don’t confuse leverage with unlimited time. One more honest note: Bradenton Beach carries its first reading this month — a 92, scored on a 90-day window under our new small-market rule, because one June closing isn’t a monthly market. The leverage is real. The market is thin. Negotiate the property, not the average.
Why you can trust this
Measured the same way, every month, in the open
Five ingredients from live MLS data, one weighted reading per community: months of supply (30%), share of sellers who cut price (20%), what homes actually closed for vs. original ask (20%), how fast the market is moving (15%), and sales pace vs. the seasonal norm (15%).
Live MLS dataStellar MLS via Bridge Interactive — the same feed agents use, refreshed daily. Never scraped from portals, never estimated.
Public methodologyWeights and scales published, version 1.0, locked for 12 months so readings stay comparable.
Honest gapsToo few sales for a fair reading? We say “not enough data” and publish nothing rather than noise.
Not a sales pitchNot a prediction, not a home valuation, not investment advice. A market reading — the sales pitch never comes.
NEW FROM THE DESK
Florida Condos, Decoded.
Milestone inspections, SIRS, special assessments, and what insurance really costs — the fears, answered straight by the broker who chairs a Gulf-front insurance committee.
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The Gulf Coast Buyer Leverage Score is computed monthly from aggregate Stellar MLS data as distributed by Bridge Interactive, under the Real Estate Market Analytics use case of the MLS data license agreement. Reading Nº 1 computed July 2, 2026 from the trailing data shown on Team Renick’s community market pages. Operational notes for v1.0: sale-to-original-list uses the trailing 12-month community average; days-on-market trend compares June’s median to April’s; seasonal pace uses this community’s 24-month June average; single-family and condo segments are combined per community. Sample floors: 5 active listings, 5 sales in 90 days, 3 sales in 30 days. Methodology v1.1 (adopted July 26, 2026): a community above the active-listing and 90-day floors but below three reading-month closings is scored on its trailing 90-day window, labeled on its card, and excluded from the coast-wide average. Bradenton Beach’s reading was computed July 26, 2026 under this provision. The weekly Coast Tape reads the trailing seven days from the same daily-updated community pages. New-listing and under-contract counts are computed from the same Stellar MLS feed via Bridge Interactive, for the same seven-day window and community definitions. Closings reported through July 2, 2026; sales posted to the MLS later appear in future readings. Not endorsed by Stellar MLS or Bridge Interactive. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Not a prediction, property valuation, or investment advice. Equal Housing Opportunity. © 2026 Team Renick · Mangrove Realty Associates Inc. · Florida license BK3241900.
