GULF COAST decodedNo spin. Just the read.
The Buyer Leverage Score · Reading Nº 4 · September 2026

Buying or selling? Know who holds the power before you negotiate.

Every month we measure the balance of negotiating power between buyers and sellers in 15 Sarasota & Manatee communities — computed from live MLS data, explained in plain English. This is the work a strong agent does before the conversation.

Published October 2026 · computed from 6,995 active listings and 5,028 recent sales · Stellar MLS via Bridge Interactive
This week ↓The coast at a glance ↓Your community ↓Mike’s read ↓How we measure it ↓
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This Week · updated every MondayThe Coast Tape · the 7 days ending October 4, 2026 · Edition Nº 13 · next tape Monday, October 12
Homes for sale
6,845
flat since Sep 27
Sold this past week
539
▲ 181 since Sep 27
Sellers who have cut price
51.2%
3,502 of 6,845 listings
New listings this week
531
▲ 63 since Sep 27
Went under contract
319
▲ 33 since Sep 27
Most sellers cutting: Palmetto 66% · Parrish 64% · Bradenton Beach 58%
Firmest market: Siesta Key — only 38% of sellers have cut
The read: Homes for sale held essentially flat at 6,845 this week — stable coast-wide, though that masks real movement underneath: Bradenton fell 17 listings and Parrish fell 15, while Sarasota and Lakewood Ranch each gained double digits, and the moves simply canceled out. Closed sales jumped to 539 this week, up 51% from 358 — a bigger move than our usual week-over-week tolerance, but it lines up with the month-end closing calendar (this window captured September 30), when financing and tax timing cluster closings together, so expect some of that pop to unwind next week. New listings rose to 531 (from 468) and 319 buyers went under contract (from 286), both solid one-week gains that argue the pickup isn’t purely a closing-calendar artifact. Price cuts held essentially flat at 51.2% of active listings, with Palmetto, Parrish, and Bradenton Beach now the most negotiable markets near two-thirds of sellers cutting, while Siesta Key holds the firmest ground at 38%. One honest note: a single strong week for closings deserves a skeptical eye — next Monday will tell us whether this was a month-end spike or a real acceleration.
The Official Monthly Reading · Reading Nº 4 · September 2026Everything below updates monthly · next reading Monday, November 2
The coast at a glance · September 2026

Sellers took back two island markets — and Wellen Park sits alone on their side.

Every dot is a community — the farther right, the more power buyers hold there. The coast reads 56 this month, down three from August. Holmes Beach fell 23 points and Siesta Key 16, toward sellers (Lido Key is not scored this month); Lakewood Ranch rose 9, Anna Maria 9 and Longboat Key 8, toward buyers. Wellen Park, new to the board last month, reads 37 — the only community on the sellers’ side of the line.

406070809050 · EVEN◀ MORE SELLER POWERMORE BUYER POWER ▶Wellen Park 37Holmes Beach 40Venice 45Lakewood Ranch 48North Port 49Siesta Key 51Parrish 54Osprey 55Sarasota 56Bradenton 56Palmetto 56Longboat Key 66Anna Maria 79Bradenton Beach 88

Scale shown 30–95 of 0–100 — every scored community falls inside that range this month. Lido Key is not charted this month; see its card.
Your community

The verdict, community by community

Who has the edge, and what to do about it — whether you’re making the offer or fielding it. Open “the math” on any card to see exactly what drives the reading. Sorted by buyer leverage, most to least.

Bradenton BeachBuyers hold the power
Sellers hold the powerBuyers hold the power
Buying? 13.3 months of supply — more than double the six-month even line — and 57.7% of the 71 active listings have already cut price. Read this one as a direction, not a measurement: 16 closings in 90 days.
Selling? Homes closed at 82.8% of original ask, the widest gap on the board. With this much inventory, price is the only lever that moves a listing.
…and leaning toward buyers
See the math behind this reading
  • 13.3 months of homes for sale at September’s buying pace (about 6 is even)
  • 57.7% of active listings have already cut their asking price
  • Homes closed at 82.8% of the seller’s original ask (12-month average)
  • Median September sale took 149 days vs 40 in July
  • September closings ran 125% of this community’s seasonal norm
Reading: 88 of 100 · changed +3 from August · sample: 71 listings, 16 sales (90d) Low confidence

See Bradenton Beach’s full daily-updated data →

Anna MariaBuyers have the edge
Sellers hold the powerBuyers hold the power
Buying? 14.0 months of supply, and 46.4% of the 56 active listings have already cut price. Twelve closings in 90 days makes this a direction, not a precise measurement.
Selling? Homes closed at 87.1% of original ask over twelve months, and September’s median sale took 159 days. Price to the homes that are actually closing, not the ones that are listed.
…and holding steady
See the math behind this reading
  • 14.0 months of homes for sale at September’s buying pace (about 6 is even)
  • 46.4% of active listings have already cut their asking price
  • Homes closed at 87.1% of the seller’s original ask (12-month average)
  • Median September sale took 159 days vs 138 in July
  • September closings ran 135% of this community’s seasonal norm
Reading: 79 of 100 · changed +9 from August · sample: 56 listings, 12 sales (90d) Low confidence

See Anna Maria’s full daily-updated data →

Longboat KeyBuyers have the edge
Sellers hold the powerBuyers hold the power
Buying? 5.3 months of supply on 194 active listings, with 47.9% already cut — and September’s median sale took 129 days, up from 98 in July. Time is on your side.
Selling? Homes closed at 91.1% of original ask, and September closings ran 91% of seasonal pace. The price you start at sets how long you wait.
…and leaning toward buyers
See the math behind this reading
  • 5.3 months of homes for sale at September’s buying pace (about 6 is even)
  • 47.9% of active listings have already cut their asking price
  • Homes closed at 91.1% of the seller’s original ask (12-month average)
  • Median September sale took 129 days vs 98 in July
  • September closings ran 91% of this community’s seasonal norm
Reading: 66 of 100 · changed +8 from August · sample: 194 listings, 109 sales (90d) High confidence

See Longboat Key’s full daily-updated data →

SarasotaAn even match
Sellers hold the powerBuyers hold the power
Buying? 4.7 months of supply on 1,912 active listings, with 47.5% already cut once. September’s median sale took 57 days, up from 47 in July — more room to negotiate than the summer gave you.
Selling? Homes closed at 90.8% of original ask, and 425 closings in September ran 116% of seasonal pace. Buyers are showing up; they are negotiating.
…and holding steady
See the math behind this reading
  • 4.7 months of homes for sale at September’s buying pace (about 6 is even)
  • 47.5% of active listings have already cut their asking price
  • Homes closed at 90.8% of the seller’s original ask (12-month average)
  • Median September sale took 57 days vs 47 in July
  • September closings ran 116% of this community’s seasonal norm
Reading: 56 of 100 · changed −1 from August · sample: 1912 listings, 1231 sales (90d) High confidence

See Sarasota’s full daily-updated data →

BradentonAn even match
Sellers hold the powerBuyers hold the power
Buying? 53.9% of 1,467 active listings have cut price, and September’s median sale took 47 days against 38 in July. 4.3 months of supply is still tighter than even.
Selling? Homes closed at 93.4% of original ask, and September pace sat right on the seasonal norm (102%). A well-priced listing still sells; a stretched one gets cut.
…and holding steady
See the math behind this reading
  • 4.3 months of homes for sale at September’s buying pace (about 6 is even)
  • 53.9% of active listings have already cut their asking price
  • Homes closed at 93.4% of the seller’s original ask (12-month average)
  • Median September sale took 47 days vs 38 in July
  • September closings ran 102% of this community’s seasonal norm
Reading: 56 of 100 · unchanged from August · sample: 1467 listings, 1035 sales (90d) High confidence

See Bradenton’s full daily-updated data →

PalmettoAn even match
Sellers hold the powerBuyers hold the power
Buying? 67.9% of 389 active listings have cut price — the highest share on the coast — on 4.3 months of supply. Sellers here expect to negotiate.
Selling? Homes closed at 91.4% of original ask, and sales sped up: 40 days in September against 46 in July. Even with the cuts, buyers are moving.
…and holding steady
See the math behind this reading
  • 4.3 months of homes for sale at September’s buying pace (about 6 is even)
  • 67.9% of active listings have already cut their asking price
  • Homes closed at 91.4% of the seller’s original ask (12-month average)
  • Median September sale took 40 days vs 46 in July
  • September closings ran 102% of this community’s seasonal norm
Reading: 56 of 100 · changed +2 from August · sample: 389 listings, 273 sales (90d) High confidence

See Palmetto’s full daily-updated data →

OspreyAn even match
Sellers hold the powerBuyers hold the power
Buying? 4.4 months of supply on 80 active listings, 46.2% already cut, and a 104-day median September sale, up from 92 in July.
Selling? Homes closed at 87.7% of original ask over twelve months — a wider gap than most of the coast — even as September closings ran 160% of seasonal pace. Sixteen closings is a small sample; treat it as a read, not a rule.
…and leaning toward sellers
See the math behind this reading
  • 4.4 months of homes for sale at September’s buying pace (about 6 is even)
  • 46.2% of active listings have already cut their asking price
  • Homes closed at 87.7% of the seller’s original ask (12-month average)
  • Median September sale took 104 days vs 92 in July
  • September closings ran 160% of this community’s seasonal norm
Reading: 55 of 100 · changed +5 from August · sample: 80 listings, 55 sales (90d) Medium confidence

See Osprey’s full daily-updated data →

ParrishAn even match
Sellers hold the powerBuyers hold the power
Buying? 63.2% of 721 active listings have cut price, and September’s median sale took 65 days against 50 in July. At 3.6 months of supply you are negotiating, not waiting.
Selling? Homes still close at 95.7% of original ask, among the firmest on the board. Price it right the first time and the cuts don’t apply to you.
…and leaning toward buyers
See the math behind this reading
  • 3.6 months of homes for sale at September’s buying pace (about 6 is even)
  • 63.2% of active listings have already cut their asking price
  • Homes closed at 95.7% of the seller’s original ask (12-month average)
  • Median September sale took 65 days vs 50 in July
  • September closings ran 108% of this community’s seasonal norm
Reading: 54 of 100 · changed +7 from August · sample: 721 listings, 595 sales (90d) High confidence

See Parrish’s full daily-updated data →

Siesta KeyAn even match
Sellers hold the powerBuyers hold the power
Buying? 6.6 months of supply on 250 active listings — above the six-month even line — but only 36.0% have cut price, the lowest share on the coast.
Selling? Homes closed at 86.9% of original ask over twelve months, but September sales sped up to 95 days from 117 in July, and closings ran 140% of seasonal pace. Momentum has turned toward sellers.
…and leaning toward sellers
See the math behind this reading
  • 6.6 months of homes for sale at September’s buying pace (about 6 is even)
  • 36.0% of active listings have already cut their asking price
  • Homes closed at 86.9% of the seller’s original ask (12-month average)
  • Median September sale took 95 days vs 117 in July
  • September closings ran 140% of this community’s seasonal norm
Reading: 51 of 100 · changed −16 from August · sample: 250 listings, 114 sales (90d) High confidence

See Siesta Key’s full daily-updated data →

North PortAn even match
Sellers hold the powerBuyers hold the power
Buying? 4.7 months of supply on 693 active listings, with 49.5% carrying a cut. Sales are faster — 44 days in September against 55 in July — so don’t count on waiting out a good one.
Selling? Homes closed at 94.4% of original ask, and September ran right on seasonal pace (100%). A fairly priced home here sells in about six weeks.
…and leaning toward sellers
See the math behind this reading
  • 4.7 months of homes for sale at September’s buying pace (about 6 is even)
  • 49.5% of active listings have already cut their asking price
  • Homes closed at 94.4% of the seller’s original ask (12-month average)
  • Median September sale took 44 days vs 55 in July
  • September closings ran 100% of this community’s seasonal norm
Reading: 49 of 100 · changed −4 from August · sample: 693 listings, 445 sales (90d) High confidence

See North Port’s full daily-updated data →

Lakewood RanchAn even match
Sellers hold the powerBuyers hold the power
Buying? 2.2 months of supply is still a fraction of the six-month even line, but the reading rose from 39 to 48. September’s median sale took 41 days against 31 in July — more time than the summer gave you.
Selling? Homes closed at 92.6% of original ask, and 43.4% of 226 active listings have cut price. The tightest supply on the coast, but August’s sellers’ edge has narrowed.
…and holding steady
See the math behind this reading
  • 2.2 months of homes for sale at September’s buying pace (about 6 is even)
  • 43.4% of active listings have already cut their asking price
  • Homes closed at 92.6% of the seller’s original ask (12-month average)
  • Median September sale took 41 days vs 31 in July
  • September closings ran 108% of this community’s seasonal norm
Reading: 48 of 100 · changed +9 from August · sample: 226 listings, 303 sales (90d) High confidence

See Lakewood Ranch’s full daily-updated data →

VeniceAn even match
Sellers hold the powerBuyers hold the power
Buying? 3.2 months of supply on 627 active listings and a 40-day median September sale, faster than July’s 47. Expect competition on anything priced right.
Selling? Homes closed at 93.1% of original ask, and September closings ran 112% of seasonal pace. With 45.1% of listings already cut, price carefully.
…and leaning toward sellers
See the math behind this reading
  • 3.2 months of homes for sale at September’s buying pace (about 6 is even)
  • 45.1% of active listings have already cut their asking price
  • Homes closed at 93.1% of the seller’s original ask (12-month average)
  • Median September sale took 40 days vs 47 in July
  • September closings ran 112% of this community’s seasonal norm
Reading: 45 of 100 · changed −3 from August · sample: 627 listings, 586 sales (90d) High confidence

See Venice’s full daily-updated data →

Holmes BeachAn even match
Sellers hold the powerBuyers hold the power
Buying? 5.0 months of supply, and 53.0% of 83 active listings have already cut price. September’s median sale took 77 days, down from 151 in July.
Selling? Homes closed at 93.3% of original ask, and September closings ran 173% of seasonal pace on 22 closings. Much of the speed-up is measured against a slow July, when five condo sales stretched the median to 151 days.
…and leaning toward sellers
See the math behind this reading
  • 5.0 months of homes for sale at September’s buying pace (about 6 is even)
  • 53.0% of active listings have already cut their asking price
  • Homes closed at 93.3% of the seller’s original ask (12-month average)
  • Median September sale took 77 days vs 151 in July
  • September closings ran 173% of this community’s seasonal norm
Reading: 40 of 100 · changed −23 from August · sample: 83 listings, 50 sales (90d) Medium confidence

See Holmes Beach’s full daily-updated data →

Wellen ParkSellers have the edge
Sellers hold the powerBuyers hold the power
Buying? 3.1 months of supply on 176 active listings, with 40.3% already cut. A resale here competes with new-construction inventory next door, and September’s median sale took 37 days.
Selling? Homes closed at 95.7% of original ask, and September ran 121% of seasonal pace. The market is moving; sharp pricing against new construction is the whole game.
…and leaning toward sellers
See the math behind this reading
  • 3.1 months of homes for sale at September’s buying pace (about 6 is even)
  • 40.3% of active listings have already cut their asking price
  • Homes closed at 95.7% of the seller’s original ask (12-month average)
  • Median September sale took 37 days vs 48 in July
  • September closings ran 121% of this community’s seasonal norm
Reading: 37 of 100 · changed −9 from the 46 it was added at in September · sample: 176 listings, 171 sales (90d) High confidence

See Wellen Park’s full daily-updated data →

Lido KeyNot enough reliable data this month
Why no score? 21 of Lido Key’s 25 September closings were condos reporting zero days on market. That is not a normal month, and it would have swung the reading by about 30 points, so we are publishing no score rather than a misleading one.
What we can say: 4.5 months of supply on 50 active listings, 38.0% of them with a price cut, and homes closing at 84.8% of original ask over twelve months. For a read on a specific property, call Mike at 941-400-8735.
Not scored this month · sample: 50 listings, 33 sales (90d)

See Lido Key’s full daily-updated data →

MR
Mike’s Read · September 2026Michael Renick · Broker, Team Renick · Mangrove Realty Associates Inc.
The human read

What the data can’t tell you, I will

Last month the coast read 59 and I told you the islands had given back July’s move. September took a little more. The coast reads 56 — still an even match — but the story underneath is two island markets that tipped toward sellers: Holmes Beach fell from 63 to 40 and Siesta Key from 67 to 51. Lido Key fell furthest, but I am not scoring it this month, for the reason below. The mainland went the other way: Lakewood Ranch rose 9 to 48, Parrish 7 to 54, Osprey 5 to 55.

Holmes Beach is the one to understand, because part of that drop is the comparison, not the market. September’s median sale took 77 days; July’s took 151, dragged up by five condo sales that sat. Against that slow baseline the speed-up looks dramatic. Still, 22 closings in a month on 83 active listings is a market that is moving. On the other side of the dial, Longboat Key rose 8 to 66: sales slowed from 98 days to 129 and 47.9% of listings carry a price cut. That is where time is on a buyer’s side.

If you’re buying, Longboat Key and Anna Maria are where the leverage is, with the caveat below on Anna Maria. If you’re selling, Wellen Park at 37 is the only community on the sellers’ side of the board — 3.1 months of supply, homes closing at 95.7% of original ask. Wellen Park joined the board in September and now counts in the coast number, which is 56 either way; August’s 59 was the average of the original fourteen.

One honest note: Lido Key shows “not enough reliable data” this month. Twenty-one of its 25 September closings were condo sales reporting zero days on market, which is not what a normal month looks like, and it would have swung the score 30 points. I would rather show no number than a misleading one, and it is out of the coast average this month. Same caution on Anna Maria and Bradenton Beach, which sit at the top of the board on just 12 and 16 closings in 90 days.

Questions about your building, your street, your situation? Call or text my cell: 941-400-8735. No pressure, no scripts — just a straight answer.
Why you can trust this

Measured the same way, every month, in the open

Five ingredients from live MLS data, one weighted reading per community: months of supply (30%), share of sellers who cut price (20%), what homes actually closed for vs. original ask (20%), how fast the market is moving (15%), and sales pace vs. the seasonal norm (15%).

Live MLS dataStellar MLS via Bridge Interactive — the same feed agents use, refreshed daily. Never scraped from portals, never estimated.
Public methodologyWeights and scales published, version 1.1, locked for 12 months so readings stay comparable.
Honest gapsToo few sales for a fair reading? We say “not enough data” and publish nothing rather than noise.
Not a sales pitchNot a prediction, not a home valuation, not investment advice. A market reading — the sales pitch never comes.
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The Gulf Coast Buyer Leverage Score is computed monthly from aggregate Stellar MLS data as distributed by Bridge Interactive, under the Real Estate Market Analytics use case of the MLS data license agreement. Reading Nº 4 computed October 7, 2026 from the trailing data shown on Team Renick’s community market pages. Operational notes: sale-to-original-list uses the trailing 12-month community average; days-on-market trend compares September’s median to July’s; seasonal pace uses this community’s 24-month September average; single-family and condo segments are combined per community. Sample floors: 5 active listings, 5 sales in 90 days, 3 sales in 30 days. Methodology v1.1 (adopted July 26, 2026): a community above the active-listing and 90-day floors but below three reading-month closings is scored on its trailing 90-day window, labeled on its card, and excluded from the coast-wide average. No community required that provision this month. The coast-wide score is the average of the 14 scored communities for Reading Nº 4, including Wellen Park, added September 14. Lido Key is not scored this month: 21 of its 25 September closings were condos reporting zero days on market, so its reading would not be comparable. This is a one-month exception for suspect data, not a methodology change, and Lido Key is not part of this month’s average. The weekly Coast Tape reads the trailing seven days from the same daily-updated community pages. New-listing and under-contract counts are computed from the same Stellar MLS feed via Bridge Interactive, for the same seven-day window and community definitions. Closings reported through October 6, 2026; sales posted to the MLS later appear in future readings. Not endorsed by Stellar MLS or Bridge Interactive. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Not a prediction, property valuation, or investment advice. Equal Housing Opportunity. © 2026 Team Renick · Mangrove Realty Associates Inc. · Florida license BK3241900.

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Straight answers about this coast

From the September 2026 Buyer Leverage Score reading (published October 7, 2026) and each community’s 24-month seasonal pattern. Refreshed monthly.

What is the Gulf Coast Buyer Leverage Score?

A 0-to-100 reading of who holds the negotiating power — buyers or sellers — computed monthly for 15 Sarasota and Manatee County communities from live Stellar MLS data. 0 means sellers run the table, 100 means buyers do, and 50 is dead even. The methodology (v1.1) is published in the open and locked for 12 months so readings stay comparable.

Is Florida’s Gulf Coast a buyer’s market right now?

As of the September 2026 reading, the coast reads 56 of 100 — an even match, down three points from August’s 59. The 14 scored communities run from Wellen Park at 37 to Bradenton Beach at 88, and Lido Key is not scored this month. Most of the mainland sits between 45 and 56.

Which Sarasota-area communities favor buyers most right now?

Bradenton Beach (88), Anna Maria (79) and Longboat Key (66). Treat the first two as a direction, not a measurement: they rest on 16 and 12 closings in 90 days. Longboat Key is the most solid buyer-edge reading, with September’s median sale at 129 days and 47.9% of listings carrying a price cut.

Where do sellers hold the most power on the coast?

Wellen Park reads 37 — sellers have the edge — with 3.1 months of supply and homes closing at 95.7% of original ask. Holmes Beach (40) and Venice (45) are next, and Lakewood Ranch (48) has the tightest supply on the coast at 2.2 months.

When is the best time to sell on Florida’s Gulf Coast?

The whole coast runs on one clock: closings peak March through June in nearly every community we measure. With typical sales taking 45–90 days depending on the community, sellers aiming for the peak generally need to list between December and early March — the exact month varies by community, and each community page shows its own.

When is the quietest season for Gulf Coast real estate?

July, almost everywhere — the fewest closings of any month in 12 of our 14 communities. For buyers, that is historically the season of least competition.

How often do these numbers update?

Three cadences: the 15 community market pages refresh daily, the Coast Tape publishes every Monday morning, and the official Buyer Leverage Score reading publishes the first Monday of each month.

Where does this data come from?

Live Stellar MLS data via Bridge Interactive — the same feed agents work in every day. Every reading is computed the same way each month, with the methodology published in the open. When a sample is too thin for an honest reading, we say “not enough data” rather than publish noise.

Who publishes Gulf Coast Decoded?

Michael Renick, broker at Team Renick – Mangrove Realty Associates Inc. in Sarasota, Florida. Questions about a specific community, building, or situation: call or text 941-400-8735.

Answers are computed from aggregate Stellar MLS data as distributed by Bridge Interactive, current as of the reading date shown. Seasonal patterns use each community’s 24-month average of closings by calendar month; list-by months are derived from that community’s typical days on market. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Not a prediction, property valuation, or investment advice. Equal Housing Opportunity. © 2026 Team Renick · Mangrove Realty Associates Inc. · Florida license BK3241900.